If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. Similarly, a district with a D+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Kerry than the national value of 48.8%. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. L. Rev. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. i read recently that if the electorate was the same as it was in 1992, McCain would have won easily, but because of larger numbers of young people and people of color it was a whole different story. In 2018 Kendra Horn became the first Democrat to win an election in the states 5th district, which scores R+10, in 40 years. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. All Rights Reserved. The only Republican-leaning districts in New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and even those are only scored R+2. 1225 (2018). Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley 61, Anita S. Krishnakumar, Cracking the Whole Code Rule (February 19, 2020). Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also in the process of drawing new congressional districts after accusations of partisan gerrymandering. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a political district or subdivision leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential and gubernatorial level compared to the state as a whole. The most Democratic-leaning state to have a Republican senator is Maine (D+2 PVI), represented by Susan Collins. I just dont know about the rest of us. The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. [1] [2] DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. Putting them side by side gives us a quick take on short and medium-term trends. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. The data is useful but kind of screwy. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. Lets hear your thoughts! Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. By State [ change | change source] Two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are completely nonpartisan. if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. OH-03, PA-04: Rust Belt districts that mix urban and rural components; ancestrally Democratic but trending away from us as unionists die off, but still amenable to pro-labor socially conservative Dems. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats. In the wake of the 2008 elections, SSPs pres-by-CD project has spurred a lot of discussion about how the PVI is calculated and why its calculated the way it is. NY-20, NY-26: Northeastern suburban/rural districts where theres still a Rockefeller Republican tradition, esp. From Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Cook Partisan Voting Index is the unit used to calculate how much a particular place leans towards each party. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. I could only find the Cook PVI ratings on dKosopedia, but I don't think I can mention Daily Kos as an objective source. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. So, for me at least, the discussion of whether a district should be an R+13 or an R+15, depending on what baseline we use, is more of a distraction than anything. [4] As of 2022[update], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22. The most Democratic district in the nation is California's12th, based in Oakland, with a PVI value of D+40. What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. [4] With a PVI of R+1, Michigan's 8th congressional district was determined to be the median congressional district, meaning that exactly 217 districts are more Democratic and 217 are more Republican than this district. Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Ebersold Chair in Constitutional Law, The Ohio State UniversityView posts , Dean and Sol & Lillian Goldman Professor of Law, Yale Law SchoolView posts , Alfred M. Rankin Professor of Law at Yale Law School (on leave)View posts , Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law CenterView posts , Professor of Law at LMU Loyola Law School, Los Angeles (on leave)View posts , Bouma Fellow in Law and Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of LawView posts , Professor of Law, The George Washington University Law SchoolView posts , James B. McClatchy Professor of Law,
I think the SVI is better. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. Are there any pitfalls if we do so? States that have strong connections to others states without sharing a border? The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. Districts that are in line with the national average receive a score of EVEN. These average districts include Floridas 7th district, Californias 10th district, and Oregons 4th district. This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. Include the PVI in brackets afterward, but SVI just seems to make more sense. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. Below is our 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI) score for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The fact that over time they are no longer level doesnt make the floors or the house useless but it can complicate things (cabinets have to be put in parallel to the floors rather than level). Cook provided the following explanation of a sample PVI in its 2017 PVI summary: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r